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Innovation, Population and the Digital Divide: Some Thoughts on the Information Age
October 3, 2005
By Jonathan M. Charry
Jonathan M. Charry is managing director of ManattJones Global Strategies LLC. He is a member of the Rockefeller University chapter of Sigma Xi, a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and a member of the New York Academy of Sciences.
OCTOBER 03, 2005 (COMPUTERWORLD) - Technology can bind and separate. It can bring us together and drive us apart. It can be used to promote the better aspects of humanness or to make the worst of ourselves more powerful. These things are hard to think about, and the future is, as we all know, not really predictable with any accuracy. There is, however, a trend for humans and IT that is occurring now, one that has far-reaching consequences. It has been referred to as
Of course, one could say that this is obvious -- populations in virtually all of the underdeveloped nations of the world don't have the same use of IT that resides in developed countries. What isn't obvious is that the digital divide is alive and well in the most developed nation in the world – the U.S. A few statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce: As of 2000, whites and Asian-Americans were almost twice as likely to have Internet access as were blacks and Hispanics. Similarly, households with annual incomes in excess of $75,000 were more than 10 times as likely to have Internet access as those with annual incomes of $15,000 or less. And there is evidence suggesting that the gap is widening.
Looking at types of Internet access in 2000, higher-earning households were twice as likely to use broadband as the lowest-earning households, according to the Commerce Department. Furthermore, there is plenty of evidence that those with broadband use the Internet more often and for more reasons than those with narrowband access.
There is some good news here. Recent reports indicate that Internet use among families with incomes below the median is growing at an accelerated rate. Although it's a long way from equalizing to the usage by families with higher incomes, this trend provides an opportunity to close the digital divide in the U.S. and other developed countries. <
Worldwide, the picture is far more complicated. In 1999, according to a United Nations discussion paper, there were roughly 240 million Internet users, of which 5 million were in less-developed countries (LDC). Today, there are 1 billion Internet users worldwide, and assuming proportional growth, which would be conservative given that growth rates in LDCs are significantly greater than those in developed countries, the number of Internet users this year in LDCs should number some 20 million, compared with 980 million Internet users in more developed countries. There are many reasons for this difference, not the least of which is infrastructure. In most LDCs, the infrastructure to support even the most basic form of Internet access simply doesn't exist. Wireless applications are promising in LDCs because they can reduce capital expenditure requirements, but even wireless infrastructure costs aren't trivial, and such access alone wouldn't necessarily make a difference. Basic human psychology dictates that those without food or shelter are unlikely to think about the Internet and IT. Unless fundamental changes are made in the infrastructure support systems of LDCs, meaning essential services in public health, medicine, education, housing, transportation, communication, electric power and so forth, there is nothing to indicate that Internet use will change from its present course, leading to a greater digital divide with each ensuing decade.
Households and businesses with slow or no access are at a distinct disadvantage because this is, after all, the Information Age. The Internet has become, for those with access, a primary source of information. Those countries and regions with wealth and infrastructure will continue to be the largest beneficiaries of Internet use. This is the operating definition of the digital divide.
Trends in world population growth will exacerbate the problem. Virtually all of the planet's population growth is occurring in less-developed countries and regions, meaning that by 2050, 7 billion of the 9 billion people on the planet will be left outside of one of the primary benefits of the Information Age.
Left alone, the digital divide will work all by itself to promote, sustain and enhance a growing economic divide in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world. One hopes that it won't be left alone. Besides the requirement to invest in the infrastructure needs of developing economies, there will undoubtedly be technology developments that can reduce the digital divide. How rapidly the infrastructure investments will be made isn't clear.
In the U.S., there are numerous organizations and government initiatives to reduce the digital divide, although the overall effect of these initiatives isn't yet clear. There is some good news on the technology side -- technologies that can be used, with little capital cost, to change the status of the digital divide. These are generally referred to as optimization technologies -- making all forms of data communication better, cheaper and faster, and therefore available to larger segments of the population. Certainly, costs of electronic devices, including PCs, have come way down, making them more accessible to more people, regardless of income. In the U.S. and other developed countries, the infrastructure for IT is in place. Elsewhere, the infrastructure needs to be created. Solutions are available, the only question being the human will to implement them.
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